2025 Hurricane Season: NOAA Forecasts Above-Normal Activity

Warmer Waters Fueling Storms

Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures are setting the stage for increased hurricane activity. These warmer waters provide more energy, essentially acting as fuel to supercharge developing storms.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, running from June 1 to November 30, has a 60% chance of being above-normal, according to NOAA. Forecasters anticipate 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 potentially reaching major hurricane strength. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick highlights NOAA's advanced models and tracking systems, stating, "we have never been more prepared for hurricane season." Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm underscores the far-reaching impacts, reminding us that "hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," making early warnings crucial.

Factors Driving the 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

Several key elements are contributing to NOAA's prediction of an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. This includes ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, and weak wind shear forecasts. Increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for many Atlantic hurricanes, also plays a significant role. All these factors collectively favor tropical storm formation and intensification.

The Atlantic Basin continues its high-activity era, characterized by significant ocean heat content and reduced trade winds. Higher heat content provides more energy, essentially fueling storm development, while weaker winds allow storms to organize and strengthen more easily. A potential northward shift of the West African monsoon could also generate tropical waves that "seed" some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms.

Enhanced Hurricane Preparedness & Forecasting for 2025

"In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," states NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. He emphasizes that "this outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

For the 2025 hurricane season, NOAA is rolling out improved hurricane analysis and forecasts. Key advancements include an upgrade to their Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, aiming for another 5% improvement in tracking and intensity forecasts. This means more accurate hurricane watches and warnings for coastal and inland communities.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will now issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds impact land. This provides communities with crucial extra time for hurricane preparation. Additionally, the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which offers advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, further enhancing disaster preparedness efforts.

Enhanced communication products for this season

• Spanish language text products for the Tropical Weather Outlook, Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages. 
• An experimental version of the forecast cone graphic 
  • Depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. 
  • New - Graphic will highlight areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect, simultaneously. 
• Rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present. 

New tools for this year

• NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS), Office of Marine and Aviation Operations & NOAA Research,
• New, experimental scanning radar system called ROARS on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter research aircraft. 
  • Will scan under the plane to collect data on waves and wind structure. 
• Probabilistic Precipitation Portal 
  • User-friendly access to see the forecast for rain and flash flooding up to three days in advance.