Bayesian Probe Points to Crew Error in Sinking, Not Weather

Preliminary findings from Italian prosecutors indicate the yacht’s August 2024 capsizing off Sicily was caused by improper crew actions.

An ongoing investigation into the sinking of the 56m yacht Bayesian off Sicily in August 2024 has found that severe weather was unlikely to have caused the vessel’s capsizing, according to Sky News reports.

Bayesian sank in the early hours of 19 August 2024 near Porticello, close to Palermo, while at anchor. Of the 22 people on board, 15 survived and seven died, including British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter.

Sky News reports that experts appointed by Italian prosecutors to assess weather conditions on the night of the sinking have reached preliminary findings indicating the weather was “little more than a squall, a sudden increase in wind speed that precedes thunderstorms and downpours.” This suggests the yacht’s sinking resulted from the crew’s “improper actions,” including underestimating the weather and failing to adequately activate certain safety devices.

The investigation is reportedly considering possible charges including negligent shipwreck and multiple counts of manslaughter against the captain and crew.

These findings appear to contradict the interim report released by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) in May 2025. Based on a University of Southampton study, the MAIB report indicated that strong, gusting winds would likely have caused the vessel to capsize “irrespective of any interactions and blanketing effects.”

The study noted the situation would have been “irrecoverable” once the yacht heeled beyond 70.6 degrees. MAIB also stated these “vulnerabilities” were not identified in the stability information book carried on board, meaning neither the owner nor crew would have been aware of them.